The Quantum Competition
Assessing U.S.–China leadership in quantum information science, engineering, and technology — and who is positioned to win the decade ahead.
The United States maintains a slight lead in quantum — but that lead is eroding as China executes a coordinated, state-backed strategy across research, industry, talent, and infrastructure.
Quantum information science, engineering, and technology (QISET) is emerging as a defining battleground in the U.S.–China technology competition. There may be no single moment of victory or defeat — only gradual shifts that reshape the balance of power as each nation secures an edge in quantum sensing, computing, networking, and materials. The country that leads in deploying practical quantum systems will gain enduring economic and national security advantages.
Because these systems are interconnected and tightly coupled in their development, this assessment evaluates the quantum portfolio under a single, unified lens rather than scoring each subfield in isolation.
Across the five dimensions of the SCSP Tech Scorecard, the United States currently maintains a slight overall lead — driven by strengths in innovation, software, private capital, and key elements of the supply chain. But that lead is narrowing as China integrates research, industrial policy, talent development, and infrastructure deployment into a unified national effort.
Looking ahead, the competition will hinge on three factors: how fast technologies move from the lab to the field, the ability to sustain investment through inevitable slow periods, and how effectively the United States can leverage alliances to build a resilient quantum ecosystem. Leadership will go not to the nation with the most scientific breakthroughs, but to the one that can produce operational quantum systems at scale.
SCSP Tech Scorecard
Measuring the
Balance of Power
The SCSP Tech Scorecard evaluates national competitiveness across five distinct categories of positional advantage. On a 1–5 scale, the United States leads four of five dimensions, while China’s coordinated state strategy gives it a decisive edge in national leverage.
1 — Negligible/Nascent | 2 — Emerging/Minor | 3 — Competitive/Mainstream | 4 — Advanced/Leading | 5 — State-of-the-Art/Dominant
Innovation Leadership
The United States retains a meaningful lead in quantum innovation, but that edge is diminishing. Researchers at American institutions account for 35% of the most-cited quantum papers — a share that has held steady — while China’s share has doubled to roughly 23%. The U.S. dominates error correction and simulation software, yet China is pulling ahead in advanced materials and closing the gap in algorithms and patents.
U.S. dominance narrows: In 2025, China outpaced the United States in algorithm-related patents by a ratio of roughly five to two.
Industrial Capacity
The United States is ahead, but China is cutting costs. America holds structural advantages in the supply of critical inputs — like Helium-3 — and high-end specialized equipment such as dilution refrigerators and high-value lasers. China is compressing the cost of production, localizing its supply chain, and aligning fabrication capacity with aggressive regional subsidies.
The cost gap: U.S. exports of lasers (other than laser diodes) reached $1.36 billion in 2024, compared with $672 million for China — even as China builds cleanroom capacity at a fraction of U.S. costs.
Market Ecosystem
China is catching up to the U.S. private sector. The American market is powered by private capital — $5.3 billion in private quantum investment as of 2024 — and a dominant global software and developer base. China relies on a state-led model in which the government absorbs risk and drives deployment at scale, particularly in quantum networking.
Deployment gap: U.S. entities have deployed between 39 and 73 quantum computers as of 2025, compared with approximately 15 to 18 in China, though China's true total may be understated due to reduced transparency around its advanced technology programs.
Talent Pipeline
While the United States leads, its long-term advantage is uncertain. America benefits from an open university system and attracts a large share of international doctoral talent, with 61 institutions offering dedicated quantum information science and engineering programs. China’s advantage lies in the sheer scale of its STEM PhD output and a vertically integrated pipeline that co-locates universities with industrial hubs.
Scale advantage: Since 2020, China has awarded more than 50% more STEM PhDs annually than the United States in absolute terms.
National Leverage
China’s strength is its government support for QISET. A centralized, multi-decade strategy embedded in its Five-Year Plans lets China mobilize public resources at scale. The U.S. approach is decentralized and market-driven, leaving it exposed to inconsistent funding from annual budget cycles and expiring legislation such as the National Quantum Initiative Act.
The funding gap: Estimated Chinese government spending on QISET reached roughly $15 billion by late 2024, compared with roughly $6 billion in total U.S. government quantum R&D investment over the past seven years.
1 — Negligible/Nascent | 2 — Emerging/Minor | 3 — Competitive/Mainstream | 4 — Advanced/Leading | 5 — State-of-the-Art/Dominant
Read the Full
Assessment
Dive deeper into the strategic stakes, data, and methodology behind the U.S.–China competition for leadership in quantum information science, engineering, and technology.
Download Report (PDF)Related Media
Briefings, podcasts, and event sessions expanding on the Quantum report.
Taking a Look at China's Quantum Ecosystem
Using procurement data from Datenna's 2024-2025 dataset, SCSP and Datenna reveal how China's quantum ecosystem functions in practice — mapping the deep interconnections between state funding, commercial actors, and the PLA across quantum development, infrastructure, and procurement, including China's accelerating push to localize its cryogenic supply chain.
SCSP Announces Launch of the Commission on U.S. Quantum Primacy
SCSP announced the formation of the Commission on U.S. Quantum Primacy (CUSP), a bipartisan body co-chaired by SCSP CEO Ylli Bajraktari and U.S. Senators Todd Young (R-IN) and Ben Ray Luján (D-NM). The fourteen-member commission will develop a national quantum strategy across three pillars: building a secure quantum industrial base, maintaining information advantage, and accelerating quantum-classical integration.
Memos to the President: Quantum Computing
In Episode 16, SCSP CEO Ylli Bajraktari sits down with Senior Advisor PJ Maykish and Associate Director Olivia Armstrong to discuss SCSP's newest Memo to the President on Quantum Computing. The memo outlines how the U.S. can maintain its quantum edge through targeted R&D investment, public-private collaboration, and a more offensive posture against quantum-enabled cyber threats.
Quantum AI: Harnessing the Power of Quantum Computing for AI
The race to harness quantum computing has become a critical front in U.S.-China technological competition. This newsletter explores how AI can accelerate quantum development through better error correction and qubit management, and how quantum computing can supercharge AI through enhanced optimization, advanced simulation, and reduced energy consumption for model training.